Strategic Thought

UKRAINE CONUNDRUM

Ambassador (Retired) Masood Khalid — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Located at the geopolitical centre of Eurasia, Ukraine has been an important arena for great power game for nearly three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The West, principally the United States and Europe, and the Russian Federation have therefore been heavily involved in Ukraine's internal and external development. Their ideological, economic, and geopolitical interests clashed in a fierce battle that led to multiple political regime changes in Ukraine, and ultimately plunged Europe into an intractable security situation. This paper takes the rivalry between the US, Europe and Russia in Ukraine as a starting point to examine the dilemma facing European security in the context of the great power game, the root causes behind the Ukraine crisis, its far-reaching consequences for geopolitics and global patterns and the implications for regional peace in other parts of the world.

Khalid , Ambassador (Retired) Masood. 2023. "Ukraine Conundrum." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 1-20.

THE US INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Prof. Dr. Nazir Hussain — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The fast-changing geostrategic dynamics are reverberating the exiting global security environment, necessitating readjustments and realignments. China has been perceived as a revisionist power challenging the US global hegemony in all spheres. The US desire to maintain its dominance has given birth to the oceanic configuration and building new partnerships in the shape of Indo-Pacific Strategy. This strategy is studded with the formation of QUAD, AUKUS, I2U2 and IPEF, where India is being given the leading role to checkmate China. The US Strategy has far-reaching implications for Pakistan in exacerbating Indo-Pakistan rivalry, pressurizing Sino-Pak strategic cooperation, putting strains on US-Pakistan relations and jeopardizing Pakistan’s energy security from the Middle East and its oceanic resources.

Hussain, Prof. Dr. Nazir. 2023. " The US Indo-Pacific Strategy: Implications for Pakistan." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 21-30.

MISSILE SYSTEMS MODERNIZATION DRIVERS AND STRATEGIC STABILITY RIDDLES IN SOUTH ASIA

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Pakistan has adopted a realistic approach to progressing its cruise and ballistic missile arsenal. India seems in a better position in the modernization processes of its missile arsenal due to the generous transfer of missile technologies and gears by its allies named the US, Israel, and Russia. The Americans appear inclined to prioritize their geostrategic interests over their non-proliferation norms and objectives. New Delhi’s confidence in the steady progress in the BMD systems, hypersonic cruise missiles, hypervelocity-gliding projectiles, and anti-satellite kill vehicle capability adds a new variant to India-Pakistan's competitive strategic dyad. India's sharpening of its missile arsenal necessitates Pakistan to take similar measures concerning its nuclear forces to ensure the credibility of its Full Spectrum Deterrence posture. The modernization of missile systems added new variants of strategic stability riddles in the South Asian strategic environment.

Jaspal, Dr. Zafar Nawaz. 2023. "Missile Systems Modernization Drivers and Strategic Stability Riddles in South Asia." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 31-56.

NATION BUILDING POLICYMAKING CHALLENGES IN PAKISTAN SEEN FROM A DIPLOMAT’S PERSPECTIVE

Ambassador (Retired) Syed Hasan Javed — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Pakistan became an independent country on 14 August, 1947, under the most adverse historical, political and economic circumstances. Yet, it was fortunate in many respects too, with a strategic location, unexplored minerals resources, long coastline, vibrant agriculture, irrigation network, hardworking population and above all a well-trained cadre of loyal civil servants, who comprised the post partition Pakistan Civil Service. While its traditional adversary India was not reconciled to its sovereign existence, was well known. Soon, however a series of tragedies followed i.e. the Kashmir War, the untimely passing away of the Founder of the nation, rehabilitation of refugees, the assassination of the first Prime Minister, controversy on new Capital, protracted Constitutional crisis and alienation and separation of East Pakistan etc. The Western world, particularly the United States knew Pakistan’s power potential and made sure to keep it on its right side. Pakistan however maintained steadfast solidarity with the liberation struggle of many countries in Asia and Africa during the de-colonization decades of 1950s and 1960s and 1970s. Pakistan’s relative success in pursuing economic growth model (though funded by foreign aid) during the Cold War era, its active role as a spokesperson of the Free world, a close strategic relationship with China, facilitator of US-China normalization of diplomatic relations in 1971, a provider of security in the Gulf and the Middle East, an active role at the United Nations etc. All combined to make Pakistan successfully punch beyond its weight.

Javed, Ambassador (Retired) Syed Hasan. 2023. " Nation Building Policymaking Challenges in Pakistan Seen from A Diplomat’s Perspective." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 57-68.

PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY (2022) – GENESIS AND ANALYSIS

Dr. Shabana Fayyaz — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

With supranational, international, and local bodies accentuating Pakistan’s deteriorating security conditions, it becomes worthwhile underscoring the series of events that culminated in the promulgation of the National Security Policy (NSP), to begin with. Whilst doing so, a litany of questions arise: was it internal factors that prompted such a policy or external factors - or a combination of both? More importantly, was the passage of the NSP a monolithic, standardised, straight forward process, which involved little to no backlash or a herculean endeavour on the behest of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan? With such questions looming, this research paper presents critical analysis elucidating the factors - both historic and present - endorsing the NSP, in addition to the theoretical rationale that underpins it. From classic to contemporary paradigms, from realism to constructivism and postmodernism, the holistic, all-encompassing nature of this paper lends weightage to a diverse array of theories, as opposed to swearing by one, in acquiescence with how multifaceted the political realm is and thus, the policy making process that falls within its ambit. Alongside conceptual justifications, this paper cites noteworthy real-life examples - from the Indo-Pak animosity, to the post-cold war tensions, and Pakistan’s debilitating economic and political imperatives.

Fayyaz, Dr. Shabana. 2023. "Pakistan’s National Security Policy (2022) – Genesis and Analysis." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 69-80.

IRAN-ISRAEL ENMITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: UNDERSTANDING THE NORMATIVE BEHAVIOURS

Dr. Syed Qandil Abbas; Syed Fraz Hussain Naqvi — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

This study tries to evaluate the enmity between Iran and Israel in the context of the Middle East. Iran, which is enhancing its role in the region and Israel, which is the only nuclear power in the Middle East, have been in a consistent adversarial relation with each other since the 1979 Revolution of Iran. The intensity of their enmity further consolidated after the collapse of Saddam Regime in Iraq which provided Iran the breathing space in the region. The exploitation of Iraqi political turmoil resulted in Iranian footprints across the region in a manner of encircling Israel. Similarly, Israeli policy of rapprochement with the Gulf States reflected its countermeasure of checkmating Iran. Though the strategy of searching for new allies assisted both Iran and Israel in extending their regional clout yet it also brought them into a conflict with each other due to the intersection of each other’s spheres of influence. Hence, this study highlights those historical experiences which shape the current regional policies of both Iran and Israel particularly in the context of recent Iran-Saudi rapprochement. Simultaneously, this article would assess the dynamics of both Iran and Israel regarding the attainment of their objectives in the Middle East.

Abbas, Dr. Syed Qandil and Syed Fraz Hussain Naqvi. 2023. "Iran-Israel Enmity in the Middle East: Understanding the Normative Behaviours." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 81-96.

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION: A HUMAN SECURITY CONUNDRUM FOR PAKISTAN

Shahid Ali ; Dr Naimatullah Shah — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Environmental degradation is one of the most significant challenges faced by the modern-day governments. Experts have attributed it as mother of all security problems, owing to its serious ramifications for food, water security, migration and natural resources which can lead to inter / intra state conflicts. Pakistan is specifically vulnerable to environmental degradation and is ranked as 5th most affected countries on Global Climate Risk Index 2020. Persistent heat waves, changing patterns of monsoon’s, earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones have direct linkages with reduction in agricultural production, food security, natural calamities and water issues in Pakistan. Frequency and intensity of Extreme Weather Events is on rise during last two decades. Floods in 2022 alone have displaced more than 3.5 million people and caused loss of 9% in country's GDP. However, inadequate coordination between stake holders, poor implementation, lack of awareness and fiscal constraints are few of the stumbling blocks in the process. A well-coordinated, consistent and integrated response by Federal / Provincial governments and other relevant stake holders is needed to effectively respond the colossal challenges faced by Pakistan.

Ali, Shahid and Dr Naimatullah Shah. 2023. "Environmental Degradation: A Human Security Conundrum for Pakistan." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 97-114.

KASHMIR CONFLICT: THE APPROACH OF HUMANITARIANISM

Abeer Iftikhar Tahirkheli — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The Kashmir Conflict being internationally observed by the United Nations has 1948 resolution that becomes a festering wound of South Asia. The wars, military engagement, ongoing conflicts, terrorist attacks, drone strikes, brutally using pellet guns and chemical attacks, war crimes, killing self-determination of the people of occupied Kashmir, abusing minority rights, targeting religious communities and rape being used as a weapon of war these all are the signs of Modi fascism in the illegally Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). Revocation of the article 35A and 370 of the Indian constitution are turning in nothing but the situation going worst in the world of human rights. The nature of human rights is universal regardless of race, gender, religion etc. Human rights violations are a global issue; thereof, the world is facing catastrophic circumstances due to ignoring the main issue of humanitarianism in the conflict. This is happening because one of the protracted conflict zone of J&K seems not immune to humanity despite being captured by the world attention. In the present paper we shall be using the humanitarian approach to Kashmir conflict. The approach is being taken and critically analysed as conflict actors face daunting challenges in the resolution of Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan. Kashmiris thus are becoming hopeless in their struggle for the right of self-determination.

Tahirkheli, Abeer Iftikhar. 2023. "Kashmir Conflict: The Approach of Humanitarianism." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 115-134.

THE EVOLVING GEOPOLITICS AND CHALLENGES TO NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN

Prof. Dr. Muhammad Khan; Sidra Khan — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Traditionally, the geopolitics of Pakistan had always attracted the attention of major powers for their strategic interests. In the process of their usage of Pakistani geopolitics, there emerged rivalries and strategic competition among major powers. The strategic competitions further created conflicts and wars with severe security implications for the region in general and Pakistan in particular. The security challenges, Pakistan have been facing in last seven decades mainly emanates from its geopolitical location. In the past, the power politics among the major powers and clashing interests of regional states had posed serious security threats to the security of Pakistan. For most of the time, instead of using its pivotal geopolitical position for its advantage, it has been played to the disadvantage of Pakistan on many accounts. In the wake of re-emergence of militancy in various parts of the country especially along western borders, Pakistan needs serious re-assessment of the security threats with workable stratagem as way forward. This research aims to highlight three salient aspects of security challenges to Pakistan.

Khan, Prof. Dr. Muhammad and Sidra Khan. 2023. " The Evolving Geopolitics and Challenges to National Security of Pakistan." Strategic Thought 2023 (5): 135-148.