LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPON SYSTEMS: ESCALATION DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC STABILITY

Abstract

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics into modern warfare has accelerated the development of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), reshaping the speed, precision, and conduct of military operations. While offering potential operational advantages, LAWS also introduce significant strategic and ethical challenges, particularly in volatile and nuclearized regions. This paper examines the strategic, operational, and normative implications of LAWS and their impact on escalation dynamics and strategic stability. It argues that LAWS are defined not by specific platforms but by the degree of autonomy embedded in critical functions such as target selection and engagement. Drawing on contemporary military developments in the US, China, Russia, Israel, and other technologically advanced states, the study highlights the accelerating integration of AI-enabled systems into warfighting doctrines across domains. While LAWS offer advantages in speed, precision, agility, and cost-efficiency, their deployment compresses decision-making timelines, increases risks of miscalculation, and weakens human oversight. Against this background, the paper emphasizes the necessity of a legally binding multilateral instrument within the framework of the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) to ban the development, production, and use of fully autonomous lethal weapons that do not provide meaningful human control over their use, and strictly regulate the autonomy of all other weapon systems. Absent these guardrails, the trend of LAWS potentially contributes to a reduction of the threshold of the use of force and, possibly, the emergence of a nuclear conflict based on unintentional machine action.

Bibliography Entry

Abbasi, Dr. Rizwana, and Maryyum Masood. 2026. "Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems: Escalation Dynamics and Strategic Stability." Strategic Thought (7): 153-175.