DYNAMICS OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

The emergence and continuation of credible nuclear deterrence between Pakistan and
India has ensured relative strategic stability in South Asia. Since nuclear deterrence has
rendered India’s numerical advantage in conventional weapons over Pakistan redundant,
India has been trying to find space for conventional war below the nuclear threshold. This
has been the rationale for its “Cold Start” or “Proactive” doctrine. Pakistan’s response by
developing low yield nuclear weapons and short range missile delivery systems as part of
its Full Spectrum Deterrence policy has countered Indian Cold Start. To break out of this
“paralysis”, India has launched a massive conventional and strategic military build-up
aimed at acquiring the capability to launch a “Splendid” Pre-emptive First Strike to
neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear assets. This requires strengthening of Pakistan’s
conventional and strategic capabilities to maintain credible deterrence and ensure future
strategic stability.